This year QB is easily 12 to 14 deep. This also includes higher-end options. So it is always best to wait on QB. In fact, I don’t even have a single QB ranked in my top 50. That is how deep it is. It’s something I preach yearly, but no one ever seems to listen. So let’s break this down and probably overcomplicate it. That’s what I do best.
We will use last year as a prime example. If you took Josh Allen you used a top 40 pick. His ADP ranked 29th on ESPN. He scored 400 fantasy points. But this is really just 23.7 PPG for you doing so. This led to QB1. Which sounds fantastic but in reality it is only 4 points per week more than a guy drafted at 120.
That guy is Joe Burrow whose ADP was 120. Burrow played one less game than Allen but his PPG came out to 19.6.
Now you are going to say but Allen single handily won me weeks. Well yes, he had 8 weeks over 27 fantasy points including 4 over 40.
Little did you know, Joe Burrow had 7 weeks over 27 PPG and 3 over 38.
We can use a plethora of other QBs. Matt Stafford’s ADP was 90, and he had 8 weeks over 30 PPG. We can go back to 2020 and find similar scenarios, etc.
Now, I’m not hating on Allen. He’s fantastic. All I am saying is this statistically puts you at a disadvantage elsewhere in probability. It is more about having more dart throws at the better skill guys. Sure the late guys can hit. But only 4 WRs were drafted outside Burrow’s ADP (120) that finished in the top 24. Williams, Mooney, Pittman, and St. Brown. None of them finished as a WR1. When you are battling 11 other teams you may not even get 1 one of them.
In my years QB has never been the reason for my demise. Especially in an era where the ball is thrown so much. Some years you need to double down and maybe take 2 QBs in rounds 10/11. Play the matchups. But you can stay close on a PPG basis. Pairing Mike Evans (ADP 31 last year) and a Burrow/Stafford likely outscores Allen and whoever you took at 90 or 120.
Thanks for my Ted Talk.